Thursday, April 6, 2017

Simple Math 101*

Hypothetical Situation:  Let’s say there’s a community with a population of 2500 people that have an employment participation of about 1200.  Then let’s say that the average income is about $50,000.00.   Under the current flavor of the proposed income tax bill, an Alaskan earning $50000 will pay about $620 filing jointly or $800 filing singly. *** Now, multiply the median of those tax liability numbers (710) with the number of taxpayers (1200) and you come up with $852,000.00*. 

That’s how much money would be pulled from the private sector and sent directly to the government.  If one considers that maybe 50% of that amount would be spent in local commerce and taxed at 6%, the revenue loss to a municipality would be about $25,000.00* initially.

Now… Let’s also throw in the removal of say $1,000.00 of Permanent Fund Dividend money.  Although the exact numbers are difficult, with a somewhat transitional population, let’s say that 2/3s of the 2500 receive a PFD, What we get is:

2500 X .66 = 1650 X $1000 = $1,650,000.00 X .5 (local spending) = 825,000 X 6% Sales Tax = $49500 Lost Tax Revenue*

Approximate Annual Tax Revenue Loss under the current legislative plan: $75000**

Local Spending Reduction Estimate Totals:
            Income Tax                            $426000*
            Dividend Reduction              +825000*
                                                Total:  $1,251,000 removed from the local economy.*


* This number does not reflect the commerce multiplier.  That multiplier would indicate that monies revolve through a community and have more than just one impact point upon local taxes and general economic strength.  The multiplier tends to be higher in rural or isolated communities and could even indicate that the actual impact upon an Alaska Bush community would be much more critical.


** The taxing authority will be looking to replace that lost income with a new or modified revenue source.  This will also serve to reduce the monies in the local economy and fall under the impacts aforementioned multiplier, thus negatively impacting the local economy even more. 


***Income Tax numbers were culled from an email that was sent out in a press release from the Alaska House Republicans on March 28, 2017.